Gambler’s Fallacy
Dr M Ali Hamza In gambling, a player often convinces himself that after a string of losses, a win is somehow due. It feels logical, even reassuring, but it is wrong. Each roll of the dice, each flip of the coin, is independent. This is the essence of the gambler’s fallacy: the mistaken belief that past outcomes influence future ones. A similar illusion quietly shapes high-stakes diplomacy. In the long and strained relationship between Iran and the United States, cycles of negotiation and escalation often carry an unspoken assumption, that persistence alone will eventually produce a breakthrough. That if talksRead More
