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U.S withdrawal from Afghanistan and its impact on Pakistan

The United States departure from Afghanistan in August 2021 marked the end of the country’s longest conflict and caused a profound upheaval in the region’s political and security environment. This abrupt withdrawal created chaos in the region and led to the reemergence of terror groups on Afghan soil after 20 years.  The consequences of the US departure are not limited to Afghanistan. It has massively entombed neighboring surrounding countries, primarily Pakistan. The adjacent nation is significantly impacted by the evolving crisis in Afghanistan under Taliban governance. The substantial power shift has had severe implications for Pakistan. The withdrawal of the United States has left Pakistan exposed to social, economic, and political stresses. As a result of this predicament, Pakistan’s domestic and foreign policies are in jeopardy. Pakistan and Afghanistan have long-standing cultural and social connections. Any change in the neighboring country has an immediate effect on Pakistani society. Variations in their politics majorly affect Pakistanis, particularly Pashtuns who have strong bonds to Afghans. Pakistan is concerned about its security as a result of the power vacuum left by the US exit. Because of its proximity, the Taliban’s revival has the potential to reach out to Pakistan. Already, since the Taliban’s takeover, terror activities in Pakistan have surged by 51% in 2022. The Taliban’s success has fueled separatist and extremist movements. Their bandwagon effect has severely harmed Pakistan’s internal security and peace. These groups’ ideals are now more ambitious, and they feel inspired to attain their objectives. Pakistan is now once again forced to launch an extensive anti-terrorist operation in Waziristan. The porous border between the countries exacerbates the problem. Thousands of individuals cross the Pakistan-Afghan border illegally every day. Pakistan has fenced and fortified the border to reduce illicit crossings. However, it is still breached by the populace, and terrorists continue to breach the border under their cover. They smuggle ammunition and weaponry to attack Pakistani troops. Border management concerns have been more prevalent since the Taliban’s control. Several events in which the Taliban opened fire on Pakistani territory have been reported, including one on December 12, 2022, in which 8 Pakistani civilians were killed and about 16 were injured. One Afghan soldier was also killed in response from Pakistani forces. As a result of such occurrences, border crossings stay closed for many days, provoking public panic and disrupting trade between the two nations. Uncertainty and the constant closure of commercial routes and crossing points have significantly harmed Pakistan’s trade with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. Pakistan’s economy is heavily reliant on exports to Central Asian countries. Pakistan’s exports to Central Asian nations plunged by 20% in 2022 on a year-on-year basis. The domestic security situation in Afghanistan following the exit of the United States has created uncertainty in economic activity. Since the Taliban took over, the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project has been halted, depriving Pakistan of its benefits. The security of Afghanistan’s trade routes has also been put at risk. Pakistan has benefited from the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), which provided a safe land route for trade with Central Asian countries. However, with the Taliban’s takeover, trade via NDN is now under threat. Pakistan may now consider alternative options, such as the China-Central Asia West-Asia Economic Corridor (CCWAEC), which intends to connect China with Central Asia and the Middle East. Furthermore, the influx of refugees has harmed Pakistan’s fragile economy and depleted the country’s limited resources. Pakistan has housed millions of Afghans for decades. The Taliban takeover has exacerbated the refugee situation. According to the UNHCR, more than 600,000 Afghans have migrated to Pakistan. The overall number of refugees reached 3.7 million, with just 1.32 million registered with the UNHCR. The large number of refugees is causing social unease among the local population. The battle for resources is increasing, and the inhabitants are losing access to necessities. Locals also have fewer business and job prospects since Afghans have secured them. The migration issue is threatening Pakistan’s social and economic security, potentially leading to a political catastrophe creating difficulties for Pakistan while preserving bilateral relations with Afghanistan. The rush exit of the United States, along with Pakistan’s comparatively poor management of the unfolding crisis, has had political ramifications within its boundaries. On the one hand, terrorist organizations in Pakistan are becoming more powerful. Their rhetoric and claims of enforcing Islamic law have gained traction among the impoverished people of FATA and other districts of KPK. Political parties, mainly Awami National Party (ANP) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, on the other hand, blame the former administration and military leadership for the rise of Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan. Furthermore, China’s growing influence in Afghanistan and the United States diminishing influence have complicated matters for Pakistan. Pakistan has now become a pawn in the competition between the two titans. Pakistan has had solid ties with both the US and China in the past, but a collision of interests in Afghanistan is currently undermining Pakistan’s position. Overall, the US withdrawal has serious consequences for Pakistan. While Pakistan has welcomed the end of the war and aimed for a more stable Afghanistan, the country is now confronted with new security, economic, and political challenges. The rising violence and instability in Afghanistan have the potential to flow over into Pakistan, aggravating the country’s already precarious security situation. At the same time, border closures, insecure trade channels, and deteriorating bilateral ties with the Taliban regime are all having a negative impact on Pakistan’s economy. To preserve internal and regional security and sustainable economic progress, Pakistan must cope with this complicated scenario with prudence and engage in dialogue with every stakeholder.Pakistan must deal with the country’s current political instability while settling concerns with the Taliban through engagement. Pakistan shouldn’t rush and ought to proceed cautiously in order to avoid becoming a victim of a new era of unrest.   The author is a student of Strategic Studies at National DefenceUniversity,Islamabad.He could be reached at [email protected]





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