Raja Furqan Ahmed

Afghanistan, the country located in the south-central Asian region. It is a landlocked and multiethnic country. Afghanistan provides roadway to connect southern and eastern Asia to Europe and the Middle East for the trade. It also consists of a landscape of deserts and mountains. Due to its geography, the most imperial states try to invade.

After the 9/11 attacks, the united state of America has been fighting the longest war ever in its history in Afghanistan to eliminate the threat from the soil but the U.S. and its allies have not been a success to defeat their enemies and unable to restore the political stability. The bush administration declares the war of terror after the 9/11 attacks of Al-Qaeda in America. Later on, the war changes the dimension due to the political changes of the United States. President Bush started the war of terror and during his 2 terms, he was more focused on the offensive strategy. In his tenure, he also opens the new front such as the Iraq invasion. Later on, the Barack Obama administration emphasizes the military used but he also provides the gateway to the Taliban for opening the office in Doha, Qatar. On 18 June 2013 Taliban opened there first ever office and announced its willingness to open peace talks with U.S. officials. It took more than two years for Negotiations over the opening of the office but it was also Obama administration success that the Taliban’s who were not ready for talks come and sit in the office for the negotiations.

When Barak Obama took office in 2009, he reviews the policy towards Afghanistan. He formulates a committee headed by the former intelligence analyst, Bruce Riedel to review the previous decision which was. But later on, the Obama administration accepts the pentagon recommendation to send 12,000 troops to Afghanistan which brings the nearly 70, 000 American troops presence in the ground. Obama identified several objectives in Afghanistan. Disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al-Qaeda, deny al-Qaeda a safe haven, reverse the Taliban’s momentum and deny it the ability to overthrow the political government and protect it and also strengthening the capacity of the Afghan forces. To accomplish these goals, President Obama deployed 30,000 additional troops in Afghanistan. Additional troops bring the total to almost 100,000 troops. But suddenly the change of mindset and strategy occurred within the Obama administration in 2010 to allow possible political negotiations to solve the war. At the Taliban point, the Karzi Government is the puppet of America so they refused to talk with them. As during the withdrawal of the troops from Iraq, most experts believe that the Obama administration will also soon announce to withdrawal their full troops from Afghanistan.

On 23 May 2013, Obama announced to over the war of terror. He further said that US military and intelligence agencies will not wage war but will focus on the specific group who are working to destroy the U.S.  But during his tenure, he was unable to solve the Afghan issue and withdrawal the full troops from the soil. During the start of the presidency, Obama’s foreign policy regarding Afghanistan was more toward the use of force but at the end of his term, he focused on the talks and negotiation to solve the issue.

After the trump came into power the war shifted from the military perspective to the table talks and negotiations.  Donald John trump becomes the 45th president of the United States of America the policy shifted towards the negotiations which lead toward the deal called U.S.-Taliban peace deal. It is also a fact that before trump came into power, he criticizes the Obama policy regarding the use of military strategy and demanded to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghan soil.

Trump plans to look like that he wants to withdrawal from the Afghan soil but when he becomes president and do his first speech in Fort Myer military to lay out his military plans for Afghanistan in 2017. Trump said that we will not talk about the numbers of troops or our plans for further military activities. The Conditions on the ground will guide our strategy from now on. In his speech, he said that America’s enemies must never know our plans. America will continue its support for the Afghan government and the Afghan forces against the Taliban and other groups.

The policy was not clear during his speech but it laying out a revised strategy for Afghanistan, he referred to a “political settlement” as an outcome of an “effective military effort,” but did not elaborate on what U.S. objectives.

In 2018, the Trump Administration decided to enter into the direct negotiations with the Taliban, without the participation of Afghan government representatives.

After the long war and clash between the US-Taliban and no progress in the ground battle, the policy which was first focused on the “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned reconciliation process,” shifted towards the direct talks with US-Taliban. The negotiation started in Doha, Qatar in July 2018. Later on, in September 2018 Zalmay Khalilzad, the Afghan-born former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan under President George W. Bush appointed as a special adviser on Afghanistan.

During the negotiation which was held in Doha, both parties were confident to end Afghanistan’s 18-year war. The negotiation was started in 2018 till the final proposal in which both parties agreed on the points in nine rounds of Doha conference which happened in August 2019. Both sides were very close to the deal. In September 2019, president trump plans to secret host the Taliban delegation in the U.S. but due to the attack that killed 12 people including the 1 U.S. soldier, the meeting was called off. This meeting was canceled to put the pressure on the Taliban to minimize their attacks but this strategy was failing and in this year causality rate was in its recorded high. The trump called it as the deal is now “dead”.

Later on, due to the diplomat efforts done by the Khalilzad the peace process resume and finally, the agreement was a sign on 29 February 2020 in Doha. The deal was signed by the US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in the presence of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Under the agreement, it stated that the US will reduce its troops from 13,000 to 8,600 within 135 days followed by the full withdrawal within 14 months. The agreement also stated that the 5,000 Taliban prisoners and 1000 afghan security forces prisoners would be exchanged by 10 March. Under the agreement, the militants also agreed not to allow al-Qaeda or any other extremist group to use Afghan soil against the U.S. The United States will also end the economic sanctions on the Taliban by August 27, 2020.

Due to the political instability in Afghanistan, the peace deal affected such an example of a prisoner exchange that is a delay due to the concern from the Ashraf Ghani regime. Present Ghani also raises some questions regarding the deal. After the peace deal between the US and Taliban now the next step is the negotiation between the Afghan government and the Taliban.  The U.S. must have to put pressure on the Afghan government to accept and do the negotiation with Taliban delegation.

Here the questions arise that what the US achieved from the last 19 years of war. The first achievement is the neutralize of Osama bin Laden, the Al-Qaeda leader who was involved in the 9/11 attack. The second achievement is to break down the relations between the Taliban and Al- Qaeda as the Taliban accepted the terms that in the future they will not support Al-Qaeda. But as the Obama administration was more focused toward reverse the Taliban’s momentum the trump administration accept the Taliban as a political moment. The U.S, also insure from the Taliban to give the right of women as they violet in 1996 after they get in power. This negotiation also establishes the credibility of the U.S. commitment.  As there is a quote that “Trust the American they will do the right thing but after they have used all other options.”

Here questions also arise can the Taliban be trusted? The simplest answer is that peace negotiators only make a deal regarding their basis of interest, not the trust. Peace processes most intended to resolve active conflicts.

The foreign policy of the U.S. shifted from the coercive means towards the negotiations and dialogue regarding Afghanistan. The United States wants to withdraw from Afghanistan since 2010 but they were getting tuff time from the Taliban and as a superpower U.S.wants to withdrawal from the war but for the face-saving, they had to prevent some sort of deal in which both sides play the win-win game. In the peace deal, the United state didn’t as such achieved their goals but Americans want to withdrawal from the Afghan soil so they had to accept it at any cost. The other reason is that American people are also fad from this long war in which they know that what will be the result so staying and fighting for the next 10 years will also give the same result. President Trump is contesting the upcoming presentational elections so for the election win he is more emphasizing the deal.

In my opinion, if president Trump re-elected then again their policy regarding Afghanistan will preview and maybe it can be shifted toward the military used if needed again. Due to the instability, the U.S. can play its parts. As we see the current political crises inside Afghanistan between the multi-ethnic groups so for the success in the peace deal all the political parties should commit to being on a single page which is far difficult if we preview the afghan history. Due to the geography importance of Afghanistan the U.S. don’t want to leave. The U.S. foreign policy regarding Afghanistan is failing as we see that the peace deal provides the gateway for the U.S. to pull away troops from the soil instead of winning the game. So this is the embracement for the policymakers.

The writer is a student of International Relations and Freelance journalist currently based in Islamabad, Pakistan.