Dr. Muhammad Akram Zaheer

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s recent shift towards a more restrained approach to the Houthi rebels in Yemen.  The former U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the political stage holds significant implications for regional security and U.S.-Saudi relations. This development matters as it could potentially affect the Kingdom’s security posture against Iranian influence in the region, while U.S. support may prove pivotal in shaping the outcomes of this conflict. This essay explores the strategic rationale behind Saudi Arabia’s moderated stance, the potential ramifications for regional stability and the influence Trump’s return to the political stage might exert on Saudi policies.

Historically, Saudi Arabia has taken a firm stance against the Houthis, viewing them as an extension of Iranian influence in Yemen and a direct threat to its security. The Kingdom has engaged in years of military action to curb Houthi advances and prevent a consolidation of Iran-backed groups along its borders. However, recent diplomatic developments signal a shift in Saudi strategy. Instead of seeking to militarily defeat the Houthis, Riyadh has opted for a muted, more cautious approach that focuses on maintaining a controlled stability along its southern border. This reflects a broader trend in Saudi foreign policy, prioritizing short-term stability over an all-out conflict that could result in severe economic and political costs.This strategy is reminiscent of Israel’s policy toward Hamas in Gaza, which has often involved managing conflict levels rather than pursuing complete military victory. While this approach might create a temporary quiet, it leaves unresolved tensions and risks a future escalation. The decision to de-escalate also appears to be influenced by the broader Saudi vision of economic reform and diversification under Vision 2030, which depends on a stable regional environment. Engaging in prolonged military confrontations with the Houthis could compromise these economic goals, especially as Saudi Arabia aims to attract foreign investments and reduce its dependency on oil revenue.While Saudi Arabia’s softened approach may allow for short-term stability, it could also inadvertently embolden Iranian influence in the region. Iran’s support for the Houthis has allowed it to maintain a foothold on the Arabian Peninsula, enabling the projection of power and influence close to Saudi borders. A less confrontational Saudi approach might be perceived by Tehran as a weakness, potentially encouraging further Iranian support for its allies and proxies throughout the Middle East. Moreover, the Kingdom’s de-escalation could undermine its deterrence capabilities, which were largely predicated on its ability to respond assertively to threats along its borders.This softer stance may also complicate U.S.-Saudi relations. The United States has traditionally supported Saudi Arabia’s efforts to counter Iranian influence, recognizing the Kingdom as a critical ally in maintaining the balance of power in the Middle East. However, the dynamics of this partnership could be influenced by changes in U.S. leadership. President Trump, who had previously strengthened ties with Saudi Arabia, returns to the political arena with a reputation for favoring assertive foreign policies and could potentially push for a return to a more forceful Saudi posture against the Houthis and Iran.The re-entry of Donald Trump into U.S. politics may introduce a shift in the American approach to Middle Eastern affairs, particularly in relation to Saudi Arabia and Iran. Trump’s administration had emphasized “maximum pressure” on Iran, leading to increased sanctions and a more confrontational stance against Iranian allies across the region. Under Trump’s potential return to the White House, there could be renewed U.S. support for a stronger Saudi stance against the Houthis. This approach would signal to Iran and other regional actors that the United States remains committed to countering Iranian influence, bolstering Saudi Arabia’s position.Trump’s potential influence on U.S.-Saudi relations could also manifest through increased support for Saudi defense initiatives. During his previous term, Trump facilitated significant arms sales to Saudi Arabia, reinforcing the Kingdom’s defense capabilities. A renewed alignment of U.S. strategic goals with Saudi interests could shift the current balance of power, encouraging Saudi Arabia to adopt a more assertive stance towards the Houthis, while also containing Iranian influence. This could lead to a resurgence of military engagements in Yemen, altering the regional power dynamics in favor of U.S.-aligned actors.

Given the complex interplay between Saudi Arabia’s cautious diplomacy and the potential for heightened U.S. support under Trump, the Kingdom faces a critical juncture. Maintaining a posture of cautious diplomacy may stabilize the immediate situation but is unlikely to resolve the underlying threats posed by Iranian influence. The Kingdom must reassess its approach, balancing its immediate need for stability with the longer-term goal of countering Iranian expansionism.For Saudi Arabia, a robust stance against Iran and its proxies in Yemen is crucial for ensuring its security and maintaining its role as a regional leader. This approach, however, requires external support to be sustainable, particularly in terms of intelligence, military aid and political backing from the United States. Trump’s potential influence could provide the Kingdom with a renewed opportunity to realign its strategy with a broader U.S.-led regional policy, countering Iranian influence more effectively.