Qamar Bashir

During his last debate with Kamala Harris, Donald Trump made two fundamental mistakes. First, his tirade against the Russia-Ukraine war lacked depth and coherence. Second, his venomous rhetoric against immigrants failed to distinguish between legal and illegal immigration. His positions on both critical issues were shallow, unsupported by evidence, and lacked cogent arguments. His poor articulation of these topics further highlighted his ignorance, which may severely damage his chances of retaining the presidency of one of the world’s most powerful nations, the United States of America.

Moreover, Trump appeared unaware of the significant impact immigrant voters can have on the election. Immigrants can either swing the vote in his favor, shift it towards Kamala Harris, or choose not to vote at all. His alienation of this crucial demographic could prove to be a critical miscalculation in the upcoming election.

Currently, I am staying in Macomb, Michigan, where the sentiment among immigrants, both new and longstanding, is largely negative towards Trump. This hostility has intensified, especially after hearing his inflammatory and offensive remarks, where he labeled all immigrants as “dog and cat eaters.” These derogatory comments have deeply alienated the immigrant community here.

The demographic of Michigan state is very interesting. Out of the total population of 10 million the black and immigrants make up 25% of the population. The immigrant population in the U.S., especially in key swing states like Michigan, is growing and becoming a more politically active and decisive voting bloc. Immigrant communities from South Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and East Asia are playing an increasingly prominent role in elections.

Trump’s anti-immigrant policies, such as the Muslim travel ban, his derogatory rhetoric about Mexican immigrants, and his hardline stance on border security, have alienated many immigrant and minority groups. These voters view Trump as a threat to their communities, families, and values, which was reflected in increased minority voter turnout against him in 2020. This alienation is likely to persist, if not intensify, in the upcoming election.

 Kamala Harris, as a woman of South Asian and Jamaican descent, holds particular significance for immigrant communities. Her nomination and vice presidency represent a historic milestone in the U.S. political landscape, and her background could galvanize South Asian, African-American, and Caribbean-American voters. Harris’s candidacy could act as a rallying point for immigrant and minority voters, particularly those who see her as an advocate for civil rights, immigration reform, and inclusive policies.

In Michigan, immigrant and minority voters are concentrated in urban areas like Detroit, Dearborn, and Ann Arbor. Arab-American voters, particularly from the Lebanese, Syrian, and Yemeni communities in Dearborn, have historically played a decisive role in local and national elections. Similarly, the South Asian population in suburban Detroit is growing and becoming more politically engaged.

Given the state’s narrow margins in recent elections, the mobilization of immigrant voters could be crucial. In 2020, Joe Biden won Michigan by around 154,000 votes. Immigrant and minority voters, particularly in urban centers, contributed significantly to this victory. If the Democratic Party can further energize these communities, particularly through the candidacy of Kamala Harris, it could more than compensate for any losses among the white working-class voters Trump retains.

In Michigan in particular and across the USA in general, the white vote is no longer a monolithic bloc. Trump continues to enjoy strong support among white working-class voters, particularly those without a college degree, due to his populist message on trade and immigration. However, college-educated whites, particularly in suburban areas, are increasingly turning away from Trump’s more extreme positions on race, immigration, and governance.

Applying the theory of a divided white vote and a unified immigrant vote across the U.S. in 2024 gives much deeper insights into Harris’s potential gains.

Texas has a large Latino and South Asian population. Latino voters, in particular, are a significant force in Texas, making up about 40% of the population. A 3-5% immigrant vote swing in Harris’s favor could be enough to make Texas a competitive state.

Florida has a large Latino (primarily Cuban-American and Puerto Rican) and immigrant population. Harris could see gains in South Florida if she can energize Latino voters with policies on immigration, economic opportunity, and healthcare. Potential Gain for Harris: 2-4% swing, particularly in Miami-Dade and Orlando regions, could bring Florida back into the Democratic column.

Arizona has a sizable Latino population and saw Joe Biden win in 2020. Harris could potentially build on this success by increasing turnout among Latino and younger immigrant voters. A 2-3% increase in immigrant turnout could solidify Arizona as a Democratic win.

Georgia has seen a growing Black and immigrant population, particularly Latinos and Asians in the Atlanta metro area. A 2-4% increase in turnout among Black, Latino, and Asian communities could help secure Georgia for Harris.

Pennsylvania has a smaller immigrant population compared to some other states, but urban centers like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have significant Black and Latino communities. A 1-2% gain among immigrants and urban voters could solidify her hold on the state.

Immigrant voters, especially from South Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and East Asia, are becoming a politically decisive bloc in key swing states. Many immigrants view Harris, the daughter of South Asian and Jamaican immigrants, as a symbol of inclusivity and progress, and her candidacy could galvanize these voters, particularly in states like Michigan, Texas, Florida, and Georgia, where immigrant populations are significant.

The potential for Harris to increase voter turnout among first-generation immigrants and young voters could be a game-changer in battleground states. Immigrant and minority communities in Michigan, for example, were instrumental in Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, and similar turnout in 2024 could be decisive.

Ultimately, if Harris can capitalize on a divided white electorate and the growing political power of immigrant voters, she stands to gain a 2-4% increase in key swing states. This shift could tip the balance in her favor, particularly in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, where narrow margins have defined recent elections.

Qamar Bashir

Former Press Secretary to the President

Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France

Former MD, SRBC, CEO, ATV