By: Qamar Bashir

Macomb, Detroit, Michigan

Colombia collapsed under the wrath of the U.S. President after facing intense pressure. Initially refusing to accept deported illegal immigrants, Colombia reversed its stance when President Trump threatened a 25% tariff increase on Colombian exports. Although the Colombian President initially retaliated with threats of similar countermeasures, he ultimately relented, conceding not only to accept deportees but also to shoulder the transportation costs. In a further display of submission, Colombia went beyond mere compliance, sending its presidential plane to fetch its deported citizens, thereby relieving the U.S. of the financial burden of their repatriation.

Trump celebrated his first victory following his aggressive posture by issuing an official statement through the President’s Press Secretary. The bold and assertive message, reproduced below, underscores the might of the United States and the vulnerability of other nations:

“The Government of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay. Based on this agreement, the fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions will be held in reserve and not signed unless Colombia fails to honor this agreement. Today’s events make it clear to the world that America is respected again. President Trump will continue to fiercely protect our nation’s sovereignty, and he expects all other nations of the world to fully cooperate in accepting the deportation of their citizens illegally present in the United States.”

This declaration had a transformative effect, leading all other nations, who had initially reacted fiercely, to eventually comply. Mexico, following Colombia’s lead, not only agreed to take back its own citizens but also accepted deportees from other countries. As of January 27, 2025, Mexico has received over 4,000 deportees, primarily Mexican nationals but also some non-Mexican migrants, marking a significant shift in its immigration stance.

India fell in line even before Colombia and Mexico. It announced its full agreement with Trump’s immigration policy but with a logical condition—it demanded a verified list of illegal immigrants to confirm their citizenship status before repatriation.

Brazil, though accepting all 88 deportees who arrived on a U.S. Air Force plane in handcuffs and shackles, strongly objected to the treatment of its citizens. The flight, originally bound for Belo Horizonte, made an unscheduled landing in Manaus due to technical issues. Upon landing, the handcuffs deportees were immediately removed and were transferred to a Brazilian Air Force plane to complete their journey with dignity and safety.

Guatemala has taken a cooperative stance toward U.S. deportation policies, accepting multiple deportation flights, including those on U.S. military aircraft. Recently, a flight carrying 64 deportees landed in Guatemala, marking the third such arrival since these flights began.

Encouraged by the success of Trump’s fierce, resolute, and decisive actions, law enforcement agencies across the country have intensified operations, expanding raids and increasing deportation efforts, signaling a new era of strict immigration enforcement.

On January 23, coordinated operations by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in cities including Boston, Denver, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Seattle, Miami, Washington, D.C., New York City, and Newark resulted in the arrest of 538 undocumented immigrants. On January 27, nearly 1,000 individuals were arrested in a single day across at least 12 cities, including Chicago, Denver, Austin, and Los Angeles. The administration has also rescinded policies that previously limited enforcement actions in sensitive locations like schools and churches, allowing for a broader scope of operations.

Despite this development, the scale of deportation remains immense. This monumental operation demands extensive planning, international cooperation, and sustained execution, highlighting the complexity of large-scale immigration enforcement and the enormous challenges that lie ahead.

The cost of executing the deportation of over 12 million undocumented immigrants from the United States would be exorbitant, with an estimated price tag of $3 trillion. This expense includes law enforcement deployment, detention facility expansion, legal processing, transportation via chartered flights and buses, and diplomatic coordination with receiving countries. Given the sheer scale, the operation would require around 12 years to complete, necessitating massive logistical efforts, increased immigration court capacities, and international agreements.

Deporting 12 million undocumented immigrants over 12 years would have a devastating economic impact on the United States, costing the economy trillions of dollars in lost productivity, tax revenue, and workforce contributions. According to the Center for Migration Studies, mass deportation could shrink U.S. GDP by 1.4% in the first year alone, resulting in a cumulative loss of $4.7 trillion over a decade. Undocumented immigrants make up 5% of the U.S. labor force, with critical roles in agriculture, construction, and hospitality; their removal would trigger severe labor shortages, pushing wages higher and raising production costs, ultimately driving up consumer prices.

Additionally, many undocumented workers contribute to Social Security and Medicare without receiving benefits; their deportation would reduce these contributions, further straining these social programs.

The housing market would also face instability, as 1.2 million mortgages are held by households with undocumented immigrants, potentially leading to a surge in foreclosures and declining property values. Overall, the cost of deportation extends far beyond the estimated $3 trillion in direct expenses, as the long-term economic repercussions would disrupt key industries, destabilize financial markets, and hinder overall economic growth.

It would be naive to assume that the Trump administration had not carefully considered both the direct costs of mass deportation and its broader economic impact. However, these concerns appeared to be secondary to larger objectives such as enforcing immigration laws, addressing national security risks, and responding to societal anxieties. One key rationale behind the administration’s aggressive deportation policy was the belief that certain undocumented populations posed security threats, particularly in light of global extremism. With U.S. foreign policies deeply entangled in regions like the Middle East, Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea, Russia, and China, fears arose that individuals from these areas might be susceptible to radicalization. Mass deportation was thus framed as a preventive measure to mitigate potential threats before they materialized. Beyond security concerns, the policy also seemed to target public perceptions of safety in American neighborhoods. Many communities, particularly those with predominantly white populations, expressed unease over demographic shifts and rising crime rates, often linking undocumented immigrants to social instability. This sentiment was echoed by the Vice President in a recent interview, where he highlighted how many Americans felt increasingly unsafe in their own neighborhoods due to unchecked immigration. The reason could be job losses for the USA citizens, wage suppression, and the strain on social services.

Ultimately, the Trump administration’s approach was likely shaped by a combination of national security concerns, societal anxieties, efforts to preserve American culture and norms, and political strategy, with economic considerations playing a lesser role, making it a deeply complex and multifaceted initiative.

By: Qamar Bashir

Press Secretary to the President (Rtd)

Former Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France

Former MD, SRBC