By: Qamar Bashir

Macomb, Detroit, Michigan

The notion of the United States annexing Canada has recently gained attention, primarily due to remarks by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. During a dinner at Mar-a-Lago, Trump reportedly joked about Canada becoming the 51st state, causing nervous laughter from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his delegation.

Following this, Trump’s son, Eric Trump, shared a doctored image on social media depicting his father purchasing Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal on Amazon, captioned “We are so back!!!”.

These comments have been met with a mix of concern and dismissal. Carleton University professor Aaron Ettinger described them as “profoundly unserious,” suggesting they are taunts that do not reflect the serious nature of trade discussions between the two countries.

Canadian officials, including Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who was present at the dinner, have characterized the remarks as lighthearted jokes. LeBlanc stated, “The president was telling jokes. The president was teasing us,” emphasizing the informal nature of the conversation.

In a recent interview on Fox Business, Canadian businessman and “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary expressed support for President-elect Donald Trump’s suggestion that Canada could become the 51st U.S. state. O’Leary claimed that “at least half of Canadians are interested” in this idea and proposed visiting Mar-a-Lago to discuss the potential merger directly with Trump. He outlined a vision of combining the two economies, eliminating the border, adopting a common currency, and creating an EU-like passport system, which he believes would strengthen both nations against geopolitical threats. O’Leary criticized Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, describing it as “collapsing,” and suggested that Canadians would trust him to negotiate such a deal.

These remarks have sparked significant debate and backlash, with many Canadians expressing strong opposition to the idea and criticizing O’Leary’s stance. The reality is that though the  idea of the United States annexing Canada has occasionally been surfacing in historical, speculative, and social discourse but lacks serious political backing.

Rooted partly in the 19th-century notion of “Manifest Destiny,” this concept has been fueled by historical events like the American Revolution, the War of 1812, and brief 19th-century annexation sentiments in Canada, particularly during economic hardship. Modern discussions often arise on social media, driven by online speculation, conspiracy theories about a “North American Union. While some proponents cite economic synergies and political alignment—especially in western provinces like Alberta—critics argue it threatens Canadian identity and cherished systems like universal healthcare.

These ideas are getting media traction and generating heated debate as Canada is currently grappling with several economic challenges, including sluggish GDP growth, rising inflation, financial vulnerabilities, and increasing unemployment. The economy expanded by just 1% in the third quarter of 2024, falling short of forecasts, while GDP per capita declined for the sixth consecutive quarter, signaling worsening living standards. Inflation has risen to 2.0%, within the Bank of Canada’s target range, but producer prices have also increased, partly due to a weaker Canadian dollar. In addition, the high household debt levels, among the highest in the G7, remain a significant financial concern, compounded by recent interest rate adjustments, including a half-point cut to 3.25% in December. Unemployment has risen to 6.5%, with layoffs increasing by 20% year-over-year and young workers facing significant barriers to employment. Additionally, labor productivity growth has stagnated, with six consecutive quarters of decline, highlighting systemic challenges in economic performance.

Canada’s recent economic challenges have significantly impacted immigration trends, leading to both a slowdown in new arrivals and an increase in reverse migration. In the third quarter of 2024, population growth slowed to 0.4%, the lowest since early 2022, as the government reduced immigration targets to 395,000 new permanent residents for 2025, down from 485,000 in 2024. These measures, combined with economic hardships, have prompted approximately 5% of immigrants from the past decade to permanently leave Canada, citing high living costs and employment difficulties. Additionally, 2023 saw the highest number of immigrants leaving the country in over a decade, signaling a troubling trend of reverse migration.

As consequence of the this apparent economic meltdown the social media is abuzz with rumors, predictions, and speculative discussions about the annexation of Canada by the United States. While this idea seems far-fetched and unlikely to materialize in the near or distant future, the combination of a struggling economy and geopolitical concerns—such as Russia’s proximity to Canada via the Arctic—has sparked intense debates and fueled such narratives.

If the annexation of Canada by the United States were to occur, it would dramatically reshape both nations across political, economic, and cultural dimensions. Politically, Canada’s provinces would likely become U.S. states, its parliamentary system replaced by the U.S. federal structure, and Canadian laws subordinated to U.S. governance, sparking debates over healthcare, gun control, and environmental policies. Economically, the Canadian dollar would be replaced by the U.S. dollar, creating a unified market but potentially disrupting social programs like universal healthcare. Canada’s vast natural resources would bolster U.S. energy independence, while trade barriers would vanish, forming the largest free market globally. Culturally, Canada’s identity, including bilingualism and multiculturalism, could face challenges under increased American influence. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Canada entity would emerge as a dominant superpower, gaining strategic Arctic leverage and unparalleled global influence. However, this union would face significant challenges, including regional resistance, cultural integration, and logistical hurdles, with the ultimate outcome depending on effective management and a balance between preserving diversity and fostering unity.

While the idea of outright annexation of Canada by the United States is likely to remain at the ideological level, continued economic struggles could pave the way for deeper economic, financial, trade, and investment relations between the two nations as a starting point. The idea might gain further traction if the Trudeau administration fails to halt the economic downturn but could fade entirely with the return of prosperity to Canada.

Ultimately, the fate of this notion rests on the political, economic, administrative, and collective wisdom of Canadians. It is their responsibility to pull the country out of its current quagmire and restore stability and growth, thereby quelling any interest in annexation. Conversely, allowing the economy to continue its downward slide could inadvertently fuel these discussions, making it imperative to act decisively to stabilize and strengthen the nation’s economic foundations.

By: Qamar Bashir

Press Secretary to the President (Rtd)

Former Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France

Former MD, SRBC