WARSAW, MAY 30 (AFP/APP): Warsaw’s pro-EU mayor and a nationalist historian vying for Poland’s presidency hold their last day of campaigning on Friday, with opinion polls predicting a close race in Sunday’s vote, which will determine the direction of the key central European EU and NATO member.

Centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, faces off against right-leaning Karol Nawrocki, 42, on Sunday in a runoff presidential vote, with some analysts describing the contest as a “clash of civilisations.”

Latest polls predict a close race, with 50.6 percent of the vote going to Trzaskowski and 49.4 percent to Nawrocki, a tiny difference within the polling margin of error.

A victory for Trzaskowski would be a major boost for Poland’s government, which has been in a political deadlock with the current president.

It could also mean significant changes such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and easing Poland’s near-total ban on abortion.

A win for Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice Party, could undermine Poland’s steadfast support for neighbouring Ukraine against Russia.

Nawrocki, an admirer of US President Donald Trump, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has called for curbs on benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees in Poland.

Analysts say a Nawrocki victory could also lead to fresh parliamentary elections in the EU and NATO member, which has been one of Europe’s best economic performers.

Given the narrow polling margins, the result of the election may not be known until Monday.

“I would be cautious about popping the champagne on Sunday evening,” said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political expert.

Tens of thousands of supporters took part in rival rallies for both candidates on May 25, a week before the runoff.