Security Landscape of Pakistan’s 2024

With at least 685 fatalities and 444 terror attacks suffered, 2024 turned out to be the deadliest year for Pakistan’s civil and military security forces in a decade.

Equally alarming were the cumulative losses of civilians and security personnel, i.e. 1612 fatalities, accounting for over 63% of the totalrecorded this year and marking 73% more losses compared to 934 outlaws eliminated.

The overall fatalities recorded this year were a record 9-year high, and over 66% more than 2023. On average, nearly seven lives were lost daily, with November emerging as the deadliest month across all metrics, compared to all other months of the year.

The violence took the heaviest toll onKhyber Pakhtunkhwa which topped in human losses with 1616 fatalities, followed by Balochistan with 782 fatalities.

Key findings of the Annual Security Report 2024 issued by the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Pakistan.

Overall Toll

In 2024, Pakistan suffered2546 violence-linked fatalities and 2267 injuries among civilians, security personnel, and outlaws. This tally of casualties stemmed from 1166 incidents of terror attacks and counter-terror operations, marking a grim year for country’s security landscape.

Comparison with 2023

Compared to last year, these figures mark, i) an over 66% surge in violence (2546 vs 1533 fatalities), ii) over 55% more injuries (2267 vs 1462), and iii) around 49% more incidents (1166 vs 784).

Regional Impact | KP & Balochistan – Battleground Provinces

KP and Balochistan accounted for 94% of all fatalities and 89% of all incidents across the country. While KP suffered most of fatalities (over 63%) recorded this year, followed by Balochistan (31%), the highest surge in violence, compared to last year, however was recorded in the latter province (90%), followed by the former (65%), and it disregards 260% surge in Islamabad as the number of fatalities remains very low in comparison (26).

The Deadliest Month

November was the deadliest month across all metrics; with the highest number of attacks (125), fatalities (450) and injuries (625) recorded compared to all other months of the year.

Shifting Trends Over the Decade

The fatalities recorded this year mark a record 9-year high, exceeding the 2016 level (2432) and highest since 2015 (4366). Moreover, the data collected over the last 10 years shows a sharp downward trend from 2015 to 2020, with fatalities declining each year by around 33% on average. This 6-year long declining and in fact, an encouraging trend in Pakistan’s security landscape, was followed by resurgence in 2021. This is evident from the fact that violence in Pakistan constantly surged by 38% spike in 2021, 15% in 2022, 56% in 2023 and 66% in 2024 (almost 44% yearly surge in violence on average since 2021).

District-Level Insights | Hotspots in KP and Balochistan

The highest number of violence and counter-violence-linked fatalities were recorded in KP’s newly merged districts bordering Afghanistan such as Kurram, North Waziristan, Khyber; other districts in KP with significant fatalities included Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu, and Lakki Marwat. These districts were followed by Balochistan’s districts of Quetta, Kech, Kalat, and Musakhail.

Moreover, the fatalities in these most severely affected districts of Balochistan in 2024 alone were nearly equal to their combined total recorded over the previous three years (2021–2023), while a similar trend was observed in the hardest-hit districts of KP.

Civilians, Security Forces and Outlaws Fatalities | Alarming Disparities

In 2024, an alarming disparity was observed between:

i) fatalities of civilians and security personnel vs outlaws:

Against 934 outlaws eliminated, the civilians and security personnel suffered 1612 fatalities, which account fornearly 73% more losses compared to outlaws. Their combined losses accounted for over 63% of all fatalities compared to outlaws’ making up 37% of total losses recorded this year.

ii) number of terror attacks against civilians and security forces vs counter-terror operations against outlaws: The terror attacks on security officials and civilians outnumbered the security operations conducted against the outlaws, by nearly four times i.e. 909 terror attacks vs 257 security operations.

Security Forces Under Siege

In 2024, the security forces personnel also suffered the highest number of terror attacks and fatalities in a decade, i.e. 444 terror attacks and 685 fatalities. This figure exceeds the 2015 level where they suffered 298 attacks and 415 fatalities, and is highest since 2014 (543 terror attacks and 781 fatalities).

The number of terror attacks against them and the resulting losses continued to decline from 2015 to 2020, for 6 consecutive years. Starting 2021, a resurgence was recorded across both these metrics which continued each successive year till the period under review.

Resurgence in Militancy and Insurgency

Historical data on militancy and insurgency-related fatalities, similar to the previous trend on overall fatalities, indicates a sharp upward trend since 2021. The fatalities resulting from militants’ attacks – after continuing to decline for 7 consecutive years (from 2014 to 2020) by a yearly average of around 29%, surged each year from 2021 onwards till the period under review, by the average of 38%.

The declining trend in insurgency observed since 2014 also reversed sharply in 2022, with the violence escalating by 38% in 2022, 118% in 2023, and 192% in 2024 (116% surge each year on average).

Sectarian Violence

Sectarian violence in 2024 claimed 182 lives and left 234 people injured. The majority of the victims were Shias, with 79 killed and 35 injured, followed by Sunnis, who suffered 21 fatalities and 72 injuries. Incidents involving both Shia and Sunni communities resulted in 79 deaths and 117 injuries. Additionally, the violence claimed the lives of 2 Ahmadis and 1 Christian.

Historical data on sectarian violence against Shia and Sunni communities reveals a deeply troubling trend, where between 2015 and 2020, sectarian violence claimed 467 lives. Alarmingly, this figure rose to 487 in the subsequent four years (2021–2024), underscoring the escalating nature of this threat and its growing impact on Pakistan’s security landscape.