Dr. Muhammad Akram Zaheer

The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House represents a pivotal development for global geopolitics, evoking distinct reactions across various regions. While European nations largely perceive this shift as a destabilizing force threatening alliances and economic stability, the response in Asia is notably more measured. The nuanced perspective of Asian states stems from their historical experience of engaging with the United States in transactional and interest-driven relationships, as opposed to ideologically aligned partnerships. This divergence underscores the complex dynamics shaping U.S.-Asia relations and their broader implications for the international order.In the context of Asia, encompassing key actors such as Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asian nations, and the Indian subcontinent, the prospect of a second Trump administration aligns with historical patterns of U.S. engagement. Unlike Europe, where concerns about Trump’s authoritarian inclinations and disregard for liberal internationalist ideals dominate discourse, Asian countries emphasize pragmatism. The region’s longstanding preference for interest-based diplomacy resonates with Trump’s transactional foreign policy, which prioritizes mutual benefits over the preservation of a liberal world order. This pragmatic approach reflects Asia’s ambivalence toward the “rules-based order,” a concept that carries disparate connotations in Western and Asian contexts.The historical trajectory of U.S. policy in Asia offers critical insights into this dynamic. Since the Vietnam War era, the United States has gradually adopted a strategy characterized by offshore balancing—a policy approach articulated in President Richard Nixon’s 1969 doctrine. The Nixon Doctrine emphasized that regional actors should assume primary responsibility for their security, with the United States providing support through extended deterrence and a strategic military presence. This policy marked a departure from direct intervention, as exemplified by the Vietnam War, and established a framework for U.S.-Asia relations that persists to this day.

Asian states have navigated this framework with varying degrees of adaptation and apprehension. The post-9/11 “war on terror” and the protracted U.S. involvement in Afghanistan under the George W. Bush administration represented exceptions to the general orientation of U.S. policy in Asia. By contrast, the gradual withdrawal of U.S. forces under subsequent administrations, culminating in President Joe Biden’s decision to end the Afghanistan conflict, underscores a return to offshore balancing. The Biden administration’s efforts to strengthen alliances through initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the AUKUS defense agreement highlight a consultative and strategic approach, albeit within the constraints of transactionalism.The potential resurgence of Trump’s “America First” doctrine would amplify these trends, albeit with notable distinctions. Trump’s approach, marked by unpredictability and a focus on burden-sharing, aligns with the historical precedent of offshore balancing but introduces heightened transactionalism. This shift necessitates careful consideration of three critical issues: Taiwan, trade policies, and regional leadership.Taiwan’s strategic significance and its evolving role in U.S.-China relations remain central to regional stability. President Biden’s explicit commitments to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression have heightened expectations in Taipei, while simultaneously fueling tensions with Beijing. A Trump administration, by contrast, would likely adopt a more transactional stance, viewing Taiwan within the broader context of U.S.-China trade dynamics. This approach risks exacerbating uncertainties surrounding Taiwan’s security, particularly if it is leveraged as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations. The potential implications for cross-strait relations and regional stability cannot be understated.

Trade policy under Trump’s leadership is another area of significant concern. Trump’s proclivity for tariffs and his emphasis on reducing trade deficits have profound implications for Asian economies with substantial trade surpluses, including Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The likelihood of renewed trade tensions, coupled with China’s economic challenges, creates a precarious environment. Beijing’s reliance on state-directed investment to offset domestic economic pressures exacerbates overcapacity issues, fueling trade disputes and geopolitical tensions. This cyclical dynamic underscores the interconnectedness of economic and security considerations in U.S.-Asia relations.Regional leadership represents a third critical dimension. The withdrawal of U.S. leadership from multilateral frameworks, exemplified by Trump’s decision to exit the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), underscores the need for regional actors to assume greater responsibility. Japan’s efforts under the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to salvage the TPP and establish the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) illustrate the potential for regional initiatives. However, the absence of strong and cohesive leadership among key U.S. allies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, poses challenges to sustaining a coordinated regional strategy.The interplay between U.S. policy and regional dynamics extends beyond immediate concerns to broader strategic considerations. The intensifying competition between the United States and China remains a defining feature of the geopolitical landscape. While mutual nuclear deterrence reduces the likelihood of direct military conflict, the economic and security ramifications of this rivalry are profound. Asian countries, including traditionally nonaligned actors such as India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, have increasingly gravitated toward the United States in response to China’s assertive policies. This trend, initiated during Trump’s first term and reinforced under Biden, underscores the enduring significance of U.S. engagement in the region.The implications of these dynamics extend to global geopolitics. Trump’s transactional approach, while polarizing, reflects a broader evolution in U.S. foreign policy. The historical context of U.S. engagement, from the Nixon Doctrine to the present, reveals a consistent pattern of recalibrating commitments based on strategic interests. This trajectory suggests that Trump’s policies, while distinct in style, align with underlying trends in U.S. foreign policy.For Asian states, this continuity underscores the importance of pragmatic engagement with the United States. The region’s experience with transactional diplomacy offers valuable lessons for other U.S. allies and partners adjusting to Washington’s recalibrated approach. By emphasizing common interests and fostering regional initiatives, Asian countries can navigate the uncertainties of a changing geopolitical landscape.

The potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency represents a critical juncture for U.S.-Asia relations and global geopolitics. The region’s historical experience with U.S. policy, rooted in pragmatism and transactionalism, provides a foundation for navigating these challenges. By addressing key issues such as Taiwan, trade policies, and regional leadership, Asian states can contribute to a stable and resilient regional order. This nuanced perspective highlights the complexity of U.S.-Asia relations and their broader implications for the international system.